[scooba0010]

Does any one have access to bmw production figures for the first two quarters this year thanks .My friend who works for bmw all ways claims they are up up and doing great what is the real truth

[Z4 Beemer]

I would have thought this sort of info would be available from BMW UK through FOI ?

[scooba0010]

I asked my friend from bmw he said they are mental busy etc etc .but in the magazine evo june 17th it clearly states bmw are suffering 1 series prod down 37% and 5 series down 31% but also stated that it wasnt all gloom and doom as 3 series production was up14% and x3 up by 11% so what are these %% in numbers /units .imho there must be some fantastic deals around esp on 1 and 5 series models

But when some one is paying list and others 16% discount this cant be fair/right what happens to future shand residuals ??

[vivekk]

Originally Posted by scooba0010

Does any one have access to bmw production figures for the first two quarters this year thanks .My friend who works for bmw all ways claims they are up up and doing great what is the real truth

No problem.

EUROPEAN CAR SALES

July 2007 West European Car Sales

• Car sales in Western Europe grew by 5.8% in July.
• Year to date, the market was down by 0.1%.
• Result for Germany: sales down by 2.7% — the year-to-date market was down by 8.3%.
• Continued weakness in Germany has resulted in a downgrade to expectations for full-year 2007 with West European sales now expected to come in broadly level with last year.
• The French market enjoyed a relatively good month in July, though the very flattering year-on-year comparisons do not account for the fact that July 2006 was a very weak month indeed. In seasonally adjusted terms though, the result was an improvement on earlier months in 2007.
• Spanish sales were less impressive, while demand in Italy and the UK (albeit in a statistically weak month) improved on 2006 levels.

Commentary

West European car sales enjoyed a solid gain over July 2006 but this was a reflection of the weakness of July 2006 more than real strength this year. In fact, when one looks at the seasonally adjusted annualised rate of sales – at just 14.1 mn units/year – it becomes clearer that July was a rather unimpressive month. Much of this weakness stems from Germany, though sales in Spain were also a little under par. With a downward revision to the German market forecast for this year, it should no longer be expected that the West European car market will grow in 2007, while payback in Spain and Italy looks negative for 2008.
The German market continues to struggle under the weight of the 3% VAT increase in January. Retail car sales in the year to date were down by 25%, though the 17% year-on-year decline in retail sales in July is the least negative monthly result so far this year. This outcome should mark the beginning of a turnaround in the weak retail market but we should expect further softness over the coming months before things come back towards a more normal level. Overall car sales in Germany in 2007, including surging sales to businesses, are now expected to decline by close to 9%.
The Italian market is still expected to turn in a strong full-year gain in 2007, despite the rather average July out-turn, as a result of the ongoing scrapping incentive there. When this scheme ends in December 2007, there is likely to be a surge in sales representing a last attempt from buyers to take advantage of the incentive. A similar situation is assumed in Spain when a long-running scrapping incentive is scheduled to terminate.
Past experience leads us to believe that the French market will not retain the momentum from the solid result in July and that the selling rate will fall back to a little over 2 mn units/year in the coming months. This will give rise to a full-year gain in car sales of around 2% in 2007.
The UK market held up relatively well in July, when one considers the current environment of rising interest rates impacting disposable income, though it should be noted that this is traditionally a relatively slow-selling month in the UK so the contribution to the overall West European total is somewhat limited.

Click here for Excel file containing above table.

6 August 2007
For more information, please contact: Pete Kelly (peter.kelly@jdpa.com, +44 1865 207041)

[vivekk]

European Production Estimates

The data is available from JD Power Associates:

European Car Production stats (estimated) July 07 & European Car sales July 07


All the best.

Viv

[vivekk]

Global Light Vehicle Sales

July Global Light Vehicle Sales

Summary. July was a mixed result for global light vehicle sales with troubles in North America and some markets in Western Europe being offset by strength in emerging markets in Asia, Russia and South America. The 2.6% increase, year on year, in sales in July sounds reasonably positive, but the seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate, at just over 63 mn units/year, is somewhat less convincing than the average of almost 65 mn units/year in the first half of 2007.

North America. North American sales dropped sharply for the second month in a row as economic woes continue to pile up in the U.S. and both Canadian and Mexican consumers turn wary. The U.S. market suffered the largest volume drop, as sales fell to their lowest level in over a year and a half. Shocks from the sub-prime mortgage crisis appear to be contributing to making consumers hesitant to commit to big ticket purchases. The Canadian market’s woes have so far been limited to July, which experienced one of its weakest months in the year to date. However, sales in the previous three months were soaring. Mexico’s market, like that in the U.S., has been underperforming expectations all year and, while some improvement occurred in July, the market has been on a downward trend since late last year.
Europe. European light vehicle enjoyed a solid gain over July 2006 but this was a reflection more of the weakness of July 2006 than real strength this year. In fact, when one looks at the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of sales — at just 16.1 mn units/year — it becomes clearer that July was a rather unimpressive month. Much of this weakness stems from Germany, where the 3% VAT increase continues to impact the market, though sales in Spain were also a little under par. With a downward revision to the German market forecast for this year, the rate of growth in the European light vehicle market will be somewhat diminished in 2007. Russian demand will, however, remain a major spur to sales in the region, helping offset weakness in the struggling German market.
Asia. Demand in Asia’s three major mature markets were far from upbeat in July, with sales dropping below 7 mn units/year — the lowest sales pace of the year to date and, in fact, the lowest pace since late 1998. Japan has been contributing the most to the three-market performance, with sales in July dropping below 5 mn units/year, after averaging 5.3 mn units/year through the first half of 2007. Korea has seen worse months this year than it experienced in July, but its predominant trend has been downward as well this year. Australia’s market stands out. Not only did it enjoy one of its better monthly performances in July, but also the market trend has been upward in the most recent four months. Still, the Australian market in recent months was only reclaiming ground lost over the first three months of the year.

South America. Unlike most other regions, Mercosur sales have been on a steady rise this year, exceeding 3 nm unit\year in July — an all-time record for the region. Brazil has led the region in unit growth since the end of last year, up over a half million units or an impressive 29% growth from last December’s level. However, Argentina led the region in both volume and growth in July, adding over 80,000 units or 17% growth from the previous month’s level. In combination, the regional market is booming and shows little sign of slowing.

9 August 2007






Click here for Excel file containing above table.

[scooba0010]

so looking at these estimated figures it seems evo magazine quotes are very mis leading it looks to me as bmw are holding there ground quite well .

[vivekk]

Originally Posted by scooba0010

so looking at these estimated figures it seems evo magazine quotes are very mis leading it looks to me as bmw are holding there ground quite well .

The quotes in Evo are based on production over the 3 months prior to June 07 & they then compare these figures to the equivalent for the previous year.

The current JD Power info, published in August 07, is based on production for July 07 & for the first half of 07.
This is compared to the same data for the previous year.

So, Evo's data is not a true reflection of currently available information.

So, it's not quite as 'bad' for production as they make out.

The chart, below, is the one which you need to look at in relation to what Evo are saying.




All the best.

Viv