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Sunspots May Vanish by 2015
By EPW Blog Wednesday, August 27, 2008

By William Livingston and Matthew Penn, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ

Sunspots are cool dark regions on the solar surface with strong magnetic fields. There have been few direct measurements of changes in the physical parameters of sunspots, but here we present a study which shows that sunspots are becoming warmer and have weaker magnetic fields. The number of sunspots visible on the Sun normally shows an 11-year periodicity, and the current sunspot cycle (cycle 23) had a maximum in 2001, and is entering a minimum phase with few sunspots currently visible. Our data show that there are additional changes occurring in sunspots, independent of the sunspot cycle, and these trends suggest that sunspots will disappear completely. Such an event would not be unprecedented, since during a famous episode from 1645-1715, known as the Maunder Minimum, the normal 11-year periodicity vanished and there were virtually no sunspots visible on the solar surface (Eddy 1976). Recent studies of the appearance rate and latitudinal drift of sunspots (Hathaway et al., 2004) and of the solar magnetic field (Svalgard etal, 2005) predict that the number of sunspots visible in future cycles will be significantly reduced. Finally the occurrence of prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global temperatures on the Earth (Foukal et al., 1990).

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Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
Michael Asher (Blog) - September 1, 2008 8:11 AM

Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.

The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.

But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.

The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.

[ukthunderace]

yeah, I remember the mid to late 80's when I worked with some solar equipment...a lot of activity back then. I still look every once in a while...not a lot going on.

[UncleWede]

So, by 2015 we're going to NEED that global warming to offset the reduction in sunspot activity? Man, there must be some sort of intelligent design there!!!!

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Climate Experts Point To Global Warming As Reason Behind Stronger Storms

Tallahassee, FL (AHN) - A study by the Florida State University points to global warming as the main reason behind the stronger storms being experienced worldwide, particularly in the North Atlantic.

The basis of the finding was a 25-year analysis of satellite data from the North Atlantic and five other ocean basins where tropical cyclones originate. According to the analysis, the top 30 of each year's storms from 1981 to 2006 intensified by about 5 mph.

That's really something since the Earth has been cooling for the last several years. How many years delay is there in hurricane activity due to global warming?

[Taittinger]

Right, so how do we fix the sun? Electric cars?

[scottwww]

Originally Posted by Taittinger

Right, so how do we fix the sun? Electric cars?

Maybe we could pump a lot of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere. That might do the trick. And once the temperature has stabilized, then drop back to a maintenance value until the sunspots return.