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      04-04-2018, 09:28 AM   #1
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Why is the stock market so resilient?

I pulled out in early March when it became clear to me that Trump was not going to heed sound advice on just about any issue you can name. Now he's starting a trade war with China, bashing Amazon and once again putting NAFTA at risk through his immigration posturing. Still this old bull market stubbornly refuses to die! Down but not out.
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      04-04-2018, 11:10 AM   #2
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Maybe you shouldn't listen to people who are anti-Trump? Just a thought.
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      04-04-2018, 11:15 AM   #3
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Timing the market rarely works out for the individual and in most cases it hinders their success.

The market is doing well because we are in the midst of the 2nd longest economic expansion in US history (along with a globally synchronized expansion) and market fundamentals still aren't too pricey. This year was always going to be more volatile than last year, which isn't hard given that we had nearly zero vol in 2017.
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      04-04-2018, 11:53 AM   #4
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I'm not a timing guy...

Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
Timing the market rarely works out for the individual and in most cases it hinders their success.

The market is doing well because we are in the midst of the 2nd longest economic expansion in US history (along with a globally synchronized expansion) and market fundamentals still aren't too pricey. This year was always going to be more volatile than last year, which isn't hard given that we had nearly zero vol in 2017.
However, so far pulling out has saved me some money. And I'm a lazy investor - if interest rates rise further I'd just as soon park the money.

I get that the current volatility is - on the surface - more normal than 2017. I can't help but feel that Trump's moves will bring an end to the "globally synchronized expansion". But if I was never wrong I wouldn't be asking.
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      04-04-2018, 01:21 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BimmerBoomer View Post
However, so far pulling out has saved me some money. And I'm a lazy investor - if interest rates rise further I'd just as soon park the money.

I get that the current volatility is - on the surface - more normal than 2017. I can't help but feel that Trump's moves will bring an end to the "globally synchronized expansion". But if I was never wrong I wouldn't be asking.
To answer your initial question, "Why is the stock market so resilient?"

I imagine there are many answers, but for me, it simply boils down to sticking with your plan. In my case, it is long-term, well diversified and fairly low risk investing.

When we signed up in early 1991, our investment broker told us right up front that we will experience many ups and downs with stock market, including a huge one every now and then. Advice? Don't panic. Stay the course.

So when the stock market went in the crapper in 2008, I called our investment broker and said, "We're not selling." They replied, "Good for you."

During the down-turn, our continuing contributions to our portfolio purchased more shares than usual - just as broker initially told us. Also, our reinvestment dividends purchased more (cheaper) shares. And last but not least, the market slowly recovered. We stayed the course - our original plan. Not only did our portfolio recover, it's bigger than ever. It worked!

Some of our acquaintances panicked and sold their stocks/shares and unfortunately, they lost their a**es. One couple eventually lost their entire portfolio.

So in a nutshell, grit your teeth during the downturns and don't chicken out.
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      04-04-2018, 04:51 PM   #6
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I got my money out before the crash in 2008...

But Bush just made a financial mess - and trashed the Middle East. Trump is making a much bigger mess.
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      04-04-2018, 06:36 PM   #7
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i will let you in a secret... it doesnt matter who is president between 2016-2020. there will be a massive correction almost to the point of great recession. qe kept this market alive, foreign investing and institutions using the gov't as a put is what sustained this remarkable run up. whether it was rep, dem, dt or hrc it doesn't matter who the mascot is it's going to turn. i think dt is shooting himself in the foot when he takes credit for markets rising because he will be held to the same comments when the markets turn.
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      04-04-2018, 06:53 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
i will let you in a secret... it doesnt matter who is president between 2016-2020. there will be a massive correction almost to the point of great recession. qe kept this market alive, foreign investing and institutions using the gov't as a put is what sustained this remarkable run up. whether it was rep, dem, dt or hrc it doesn't matter who the mascot is it's going to turn. i think dt is shooting himself in the foot when he takes credit for markets rising because he will be held to the same comments when the markets turn.
I couldn't agree more sadly. As much as I like DJT, he really, really should stop taking credit for the stock market and the fact it's at ridiculous highs. I personally don't think any of the sins from 2007-2008 have been corrected, and that massive pain is in store for this country unlike anything we've ever seen before.

The Fed can keep up the charade longer than any of us can stay solvent, very wise words I've never forgotten.
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      04-04-2018, 06:59 PM   #9
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From what I understand the inital spike in the market when he won may actually have been partly a signal of no confidence, as a trillion dollars of bonds were sold in 2016 - of course our trusty news agencies didnt report on how many of those bonds were sold before Literally Hitler won.

Those bonds were likely invested in the market, so boom, economic growth.

Maybe we should stop looking at the market and just use GDP as a metric of economic health since it's so largely based on government spending (and consumers spending the taxpayer money the government gaves to them on 4k tvs and new cars)
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      04-05-2018, 05:41 PM   #10
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apparently i am not alone in my theory and beliefs of the market and it's current state.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...e-market-panic
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      04-05-2018, 06:46 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
apparently i am not alone in my theory and beliefs of the market and it's current state.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...e-market-panic
Yeah you were pretty spot on with the last post, those are also my feelings/opinion on the matter.
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      04-06-2018, 09:34 AM   #12
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The market is a roller coaster that benefits the people who have the grit and money to stay in when times get tough. Don't try to over-complicate it. I saw an article in forbes or some other business paper that basically said those who invested the most aggressively in 2008 ended up making the most. Hell, I'd say some people moved to a new tax bracket investing during the recession.
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      04-06-2018, 10:41 AM   #13
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over the last decade you could've purchased anything and more than doubled your money. you didn't have to be particularly smart, wealthy or have stellar financial advice. even if you factor in how low the markets went and how much unrealized losses people had on their books and did not add new money you would still be up far more than any other "real" asset class.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IllSic_Design View Post
Yeah you were pretty spot on with the last post, those are also my feelings/opinion on the matter.
i guess even captain DT is thinking the same way...
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...re-pain-market
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      04-09-2018, 10:46 AM   #14
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Trump got up in a no trade war mood...

Wild market upswing! Thankfully I'm not burdened with any "rational markets" ideology.
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      04-09-2018, 05:23 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BimmerBoomer View Post
I pulled out
real men dont pull out.
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      04-09-2018, 07:57 PM   #16
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even for the money shot?

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Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy View Post
real men dont pull out.
It all depends on your goals.
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      04-09-2018, 08:18 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy View Post
real men dont pull out.
i guess the real men can be found on welfare lines... or at least their "real baby mommas" can be.
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      04-09-2018, 08:35 PM   #18
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timing in the market isn't as important as time IN the market.
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      04-09-2018, 08:48 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roastbeef View Post
timing in the market isn't as important as time IN the market.
100% correct.
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      04-10-2018, 12:30 AM   #20
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Dark pools propping up the market at just the right time, at the benefit of.....not you.
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      03-09-2020, 11:51 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
i will let you in a secret... it doesnt matter who is president between 2016-2020. there will be a massive correction almost to the point of great recession. qe kept this market alive, foreign investing and institutions using the gov't as a put is what sustained this remarkable run up. whether it was rep, dem, dt or hrc it doesn't matter who the mascot is it's going to turn. i think dt is shooting himself in the foot when he takes credit for markets rising because he will be held to the same comments when the markets turn.
.bump
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      03-09-2020, 01:15 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iconoclast View Post
.bump
LOL.
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