[ASAP]

Let's see if Jerome Powell slaps us in the face w another rate hike today.

[bagekko]

Another article talking about increasing divorce of older people, which was a justification of housing demand/prices I read before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/thin...e-no-idea.html

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Let's see if Jerome Powell slaps us in the face w another rate hike today.

We'll see, but the market's not betting on it, and JP doesn't appear to be the kind of guy that likes to surprise. That, combined with them not wanting to look spooked by the jump in oil prices, which actually caused core PCE to rise a little, will likely keep rates where they are.

One thing is for sure. Rates are not going down any time soon. The 10 year closed over 4.3% today. If oil gets to $100 and stays there, it's going to affect core prices pretty quickly. Rates may continue to go up; don't bet against a hike next month. Anybody think a "soft landing" is looking less likely? Raises hand...

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

We'll see, but the market's not betting on it, and JP doesn't appear to be the kind of guy that likes to surprise. That, combined with them not wanting to look spooked by the jump in oil prices, which actually caused core PCE to rise a little, will likely keep rates where they are.

One thing is for sure. Rates are not going down any time soon. The 10 year closed over 4.3% today. If oil gets to $100 and stays there, it's going to affect core prices pretty quickly. Rates may continue to go up; don't bet against a hike next month. Anybody think a "soft landing" is looking less likely? Raises hand...

The soft landing is just a farce that's only making things harder and harder on everyday hard working Americans... they play with lagging indicators all while costs go up and up. We need to have a wipeout that quickly kills demand and build back as soon as possible... we are just not in normal times for the past 3 years.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by ASAP

The soft landing is just a farce that's only making things harder and harder on everyday hard working Americans... they play with lagging indicators all while costs go up and up. We need to have a wipeout that quickly kills demand and build back as soon as possible... we are just not in normal times for the past 3 years.

Well, the time to clear the cruft was actually in 2008-2011. We didn't really do that, and kept rates repressed straight through last year.

There's an immense amount of bad stuff that's been loaded up on the books for the last 20 years. A "wipeout" could very likely become a total collapse, and the gov'mint knows this. They're walking an absolutely precarious tightrope, trying to deflate asset classes one by one, versus all at once. Crypto, CRE, etc.

None of this is good for the short and medium term. The bank runs earlier this year were the warning.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Well, the time to clear the cruft was actually in 2008-2011. We didn't really do that, and kept rates repressed straight through last year.

There's an immense amount of bad stuff that's been loaded up on the books for the last 20 years. A "wipeout" could very likely become a total collapse, and the gov'mint knows this. They're walking an absolutely precarious tightrope, trying to deflate asset classes one by one, versus all at once. Crypto, CRE, etc.

None of this is good for the short and medium term. The bank runs earlier this year were the warning.

Yea and it's interesting because it seems like inflation was the final swan song... they could keep policy as is for very many years (even when the market was overheated already)... but inflation / sky high cost of housing finally reigned in fed policy... at this point almost no one can predict the next 10 years. If rates fall... will there be enough housing built to catchup? Will high inflation come right back like it did in the 80s? All I know is... that predicting the next few years based on the last 10 is a very poor decision... I think everyone caught up on hopium or rates being reduced in any way thats significant in the next few years is living off hopium.

[Chick Webb]

Rather hawkish tone from JP today. That certainly explains the 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq. Economic growth adjusted up, unemployment down. Hoping against hope for a soft landing, it seems.

Meanwhile, further signs that consumers, especially the younger ones, are pulling in their horns now that they've spent down their COVID cash and have to start paying their bills again - With Plunging Sales, New CEO, Stitch Fix Looks For A Reset. It certainly looks like the lower- and middle-class consumers are just about done.

So what's going to make this landing "soft"? At this point it can only be the $4T in deficit spending the dems authorized before the mid-terms, much of which is just now starting to be spent. That stimulus will continue well beyond the end of '24 and could stave off the inevitable. But it may actually do the opposite, as it will force the Fed to keep interest rates high, the consequence of which will be continued pain in private credit markets, crushing commercial RE, small business, and those consumers carrying over $1T in CC debt.

Eventually something will likely break. The earnings recession is upon us and it only remains to be seen how far it will go. Once the market gets its collective head out of the sand - and that does appear to be happening, finally - we'll see a meaningful adjustment in prices. At which point the Fed will have to make a decision. Drop interest rates to stimulate the private sector (and markets), or keep them high to fight inflation. Tough call. I have a friend who's a sr. trader for a more-than-medium-size investment house. I asked him who wins, the Fed or the Markets? He said, Markets, the Markets always win. We shall see.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Rather hawkish tone from JP today. That certainly explains the 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq. Economic growth adjusted up, unemployment down. Hoping against hope for a soft landing, it seems.

Meanwhile, further signs that consumers, especially the younger ones, are pulling in their horns now that they've spent down their COVID cash and have to start paying their bills again - With Plunging Sales, New CEO, Stitch Fix Looks For A Reset. It certainly looks like the lower- and middle-class consumers are just about done.

So what's going to make this landing "soft"? At this point it can only be the $4T in deficit spending the dems authorized before the mid-terms, much of which is just now starting to be spent. That stimulus will continue well beyond the end of '24 and could stave off the inevitable. But it may actually do the opposite, as it will force the Fed to keep interest rates high, the consequence of which will be continued pain in private credit markets, crushing commercial RE, small business, and those consumers carrying over $1T in CC debt.

Eventually something will likely break. The earnings recession is upon us and it only remains to be seen how far it will go. Once the market gets its collective head out of the sand - and that does appear to be happening, finally - we'll see a meaningful adjustment in prices. At which point the Fed will have to make a decision. Drop interest rates to stimulate the private sector (and markets), or keep them high to fight inflation. Tough call. I have a friend who's a sr. trader for a more-than-medium-size investment house. I asked him who wins, the Fed or the Markets? He said, Markets, the Markets always win. We shall see.

I am strongly under the impression that Powell no longer knows what to do or the situation is just much larger and above our heads. We've never been in a position when trillions of dollars were printed, rates were dropped to an all time low, congress continued to spend and taxes weren't raised. Again, I have no idea what this means a few years out but there are major cracks already seen in the employment market... folks with white collar jobs are looking for jobs for months and yet spending still hasn't slowed down to where it needs to. Oh well, again... it just means a further class divide grows...

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I am strongly under the impression that Powell no longer knows what to do or the situation is just much larger and above our heads.

He's not the only one...

[chassis]

JPM, ADM, GM, MSFT earnings all good.

Soft landing is in. WEI bottomed 6 months ago.

Going forward the economy is subject to normal fluctuations.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by chassis

JPM, ADM, GM, MSFT earnings all good.

Soft landing is in. WEI bottomed 6 months ago.

Going forward the economy is subject to normal fluctuations.

Add AMZN to that, plus solid GDP growth for Q3. Not bad.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

Add AMZN to that, plus solid GDP growth for Q3. Not bad.

Economy is smoking hot. Inflation is coming down.

Structural forces are driving the economy for the foreseeable future. General expansion, innovation (tech, AI), chronically tight housing supply and re-shoring manufacturing. There may be some bumps in the road but the real economy will chug along for quite some time.

[XutvJet]

Check in time. For the investors in this forum, how's your portfolio doing in this strange market? I really have no idea what to think anymore.

My various investment accounts have been performing exceptionally well over the past 9 months. I have more in my accounts than I ever have had and I don't add anything except up to the match in my 401K. I've even taken money out to purchase a 2020 Mazda 3 for my son (college student) which he is being loaned the money at 0% which he pays monthly plus insurance, maintenance, etc. We also take out money to cover vacation travel and travel for my daughter's club volleyball.

I'm heavily invested in S&P 500 index funds and Berkshire Class B (about 70% of the portfolio) and the rest in random stocks, bond funds, and cash. Back in 2017, I bought Activision Blizzard and recently it was acquired by MS. We made a hefty chunk on that one once the deal went through.

Anyone have any up and coming stock recommendations, ideally on the tech side?

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Check in time. For the investors in this forum, how's your portfolio doing in this strange market? I really have no idea what to think anymore.

My various investment accounts have been performing exceptionally well over the past 9 months. I have more in my accounts than I ever have had and I don't add anything except up to the match in my 401K. I've even taken money out to purchase a 2020 Mazda 3 for my son (college student) which he is being loaned the money at 0% which he pays monthly plus insurance, maintenance, etc. We also take out money to cover vacation travel and travel for my daughter's club volleyball.

I'm heavily invested in S&P 500 index funds and Berkshire Class B (about 70% of the portfolio) and the rest in random stocks, bond funds, and cash. Back in 2017, I bought Activision Blizzard and recently it was acquired by MS. We made a hefty chunk on that one once the deal went through.

Anyone have any up and coming stock recommendations, ideally on the tech side?

not sure if you are a divendend investor but MO is smoking at almost 10% return. PFE is also pretty low in price with a 5% yield.

IDK about tech. It always make me wonder how you earn money on that. Like do you park 100K in amazon now and hope it will double at some point in your life when you sell?

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

IDK about tech.

What exchange are they (IDK) listed on?????

[JJ 911SC]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

What exchange are they (IDK) listed on?????

It's kind of a secret (I Don't Know) but if you send me 100K, you'll be in.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

What exchange are they (IDK) listed on?????

Originally Posted by JJ 911SC

It's kind of a secret (I Don't Know) but if you send me 100K, you'll be in.

its my secret stock exchange

[chassis]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Check in time. For the investors in this forum, how's your portfolio doing in this strange market? I really have no idea what to think anymore.

My various investment accounts have been performing exceptionally well over the past 9 months. I have more in my accounts than I ever have had and I don't add anything except up to the match in my 401K. I've even taken money out to purchase a 2020 Mazda 3 for my son (college student) which he is being loaned the money at 0% which he pays monthly plus insurance, maintenance, etc. We also take out money to cover vacation travel and travel for my daughter's club volleyball.

I'm heavily invested in S&P 500 index funds and Berkshire Class B (about 70% of the portfolio) and the rest in random stocks, bond funds, and cash. Back in 2017, I bought Activision Blizzard and recently it was acquired by MS. We made a hefty chunk on that one once the deal went through.

Anyone have any up and coming stock recommendations, ideally on the tech side?

Doing OK. LTM return is satisfactory. 2023 YOY return is satisfactory.

Earnings season, Fedspeak and interest rates are market focus areas.

Economy is solid now. Jobs, manufacturing and construction are running well.

[murderspice]

In your opinion, does tech seem risky with all the AI news lately? As a layman, it seems layoffs and disruption are the words of the day. Or have i fallen victim to the news media during an election year?

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by murderspice

In your opinion, does tech seem risky with all the AI news lately? As a layman, it seems layoffs and disruption are the words of the day. Or have i fallen victim to the news media during an election year?

Interest rates are the tech risk, their P/E multiples are highly sensitive to interest rates. If the FED lowers rates sooner and/or more than priced in now, they will rally; if the FED delays or moves more incrementally, they could fall. There will always be exceptions to this for the outstanding performers and the weak. AI is in hype mode right now - some early winners like NVDIA but all the bigs are in it too, so there will be some leveling. And the little stocks getting pumped will have to succeed fast or they’ll get dumped. Typical hype cycle in tech segments over my lifetime.

IMO the economy is feeding off continued fiscal stimulus including student loan forgiveness, which is allowing the FED to delay rate cuts until closer to the election. Headline numbers are very good, revisions not so much. The economy and stock market are fragile; any shocks or FED miscalculation could have outsized impacts as a result.

[ASAP]

The way I read the economy right now is that there is almost 2 different splits in the overall macro view-

The real economy - which is basically on life support.

Unemployment numbers right now are so fake that if you believe them you need to go see someone. They've been revised every month and tons of layoffs have happened across all industries. Inflation is still keeping on just at a lowered rate however we still have cumulative inflation of about 30% over the past 4 years. Wage growth in sectors outside of low end service jobs is non existent right now... if you lose your job, you will get one that pays a fraction.


The wealthy economy - which is consistently just being pumped by hopes and dreams as well as the money that hasn't been fully siphoned out right now.

This the stock market / 401k economy... some corporations are still posting solid results and others are just floating on some insane valuations that don't match earnings nor current rates yet we are seeing record SPY numbers. The layoffs are masking some of this as well as prior year's price increases for many corpos.

I see all of this going 2 ways-

The fed at this point I believe has little to no idea of what's really going on... or if they do, they've certainly adjusted any real mandate that they would serve.

So we are either going to get some insane recession once this election happens and everything will finally self correct

OR

We keep humming along the way we have been thru various actions by the govt / fed - this is the part that cannot be predicted because we have no idea of the decisions that will be made. If more banks, commercial RE fail and poor earnings continue to show up, will the fed rescue the day? My guess is yes as again they've kind of revised what is acceptable inflation / capitalist cycles at this point.

[murderspice]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Interest rates are the tech risk, their P/E multiples are highly sensitive to interest rates. If the FED lowers rates sooner and/or more than priced in now, they will rally; if the FED delays or moves more incrementally, they could fall. There will always be exceptions to this for the outstanding performers and the weak. AI is in hype mode right now - some early winners like NVDIA but all the bigs are in it too, so there will be some leveling. And the little stocks getting pumped will have to succeed fast or they’ll get dumped. Typical hype cycle in tech segments over my lifetime.

IMO the economy is feeding off continued fiscal stimulus including student loan forgiveness, which is allowing the FED to delay rate cuts until closer to the election. Headline numbers are very good, revisions not so much. The economy and stock market are fragile; any shocks or FED miscalculation could have outsized impacts as a result.

So basically, i dont know what “tech” really means, haha. Thanks for the response.