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      02-25-2020, 07:36 AM   #573
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Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
I've actually worked in ID for years and years across multiple organizations. Please, share with me your ID credentials?
That wasn't' the question and trust me we all aware of your credentials as you constantly remind us every chance you get. I've been in health care for twenty years specifically dealing with a very vulnerable pediatric population. We are always constantly watching for things like this/working with many different organizations etc. Even with up to the date/supposedly accurate info, there is only so much you can do.
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      02-25-2020, 07:40 AM   #574
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Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
That wasn't' the question and trust me we all aware of your credentials as you constantly remind us every chance you get. I've been in health care for twenty years specifically dealing with a very vulnerable pediatric population. We are always constantly watching for things like this/working with many different organizations etc. Even with up to the date/supposedly accurate info, there is only so much you can do.
First non-emotional, smart thing you've said in quite a while.

This is the only thing I can go by: Most of the people I know in ID, are canceling trips and telling loved ones to stay away from airports and crowds until the actual incubation and re-infection rates are known.
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      02-25-2020, 07:40 AM   #575
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Originally Posted by NormanConquest View Post
I already told you several mistakes they made and are still making.
That wasn't the only part of the question.............

I agree with some of what you said, but disagree a warning from the WHO was going to do anything in the grand scheme of things. Are you for giving them power over sovereign nations and markets etc to try and contain outbreaks like this in the future? Other than that, I'm unsure what they can do and pointing out their mistakes, while accurate is still a bit disingenuous knowing they are powerless to stop these things. Or dealing with sovereign nations, especially ones like China.
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      02-25-2020, 07:45 AM   #576
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Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
First non-emotional, smart thing you've said in quite a while.

This is the only thing I can go by: Most of the people I know in ID, are canceling trips and telling loved ones to stay away from airports and crowds until the actual incubation and re-infection rates are known.
Other than that, there isn't much you can do is the point unfortunately. Well basic hygiene to help stop the spread of all viruses. But, there are still a lot of people that don't even wash their hands after going to the bathroom so yah................

And same to you.

The thing is you obviously work in business and know most aren't going to cancel trips etc.
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      02-25-2020, 08:01 AM   #577
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Hierarchy of bureaucracies descending from Simply Horrible to Satan's Anus:

Local Government
State Government
Federal Government
Consortium of Governments (The UN, etc.)
Offspring of Consortium of Governments (The WHO, etc)

They are well intentioned and needed but, unfortunately, no one is really in charge and everyone is risk averse. This leads to the kind of inaction we have seen in this particular instance.
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      02-25-2020, 08:12 AM   #578
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post

The thing is you obviously work in business and know most aren't going to cancel trips etc.
This is the weird thing, to me. Seems like the odds of getting it are low in the US and Canada because we have few identified cases and those are traced and isolated. But are the odds really as low as they seem? We have had a lot of travel to China, SK and Japan over the last three months, and having seen it “pop up” in Italy and Iran, as well as a few other countries where it has apparently been contained, it seems likely it is here but latent (asymptomatic so far) or misdiagnosed. There is simply not enough data to be sure, however. Then look at some specific cities where there has been a lot of international travel, especially to/from countries with the most cases: Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles?, New Orleans. Maybe Austin, Chicago and NYC. Those with highly concentrated downtowns, convention areas, or in the case of NOLA, Mardi Gras in the Quarter, would seem to have a higher probability of transmission and infection. Still low probability, but maybe an elevated risk in those cities.

Then look at the consequences of getting it. For most, the result is 2-4 weeks of quarantine. Treatment seems to be for the most severe cases/symptoms, similar to pneumonia. No cure, just let it run its course and treat the treatable symptoms. For a very small part of the population, there is much greater risk of negative outcomes (longer treatment, lasting consequences, death).

So the probability is low but the consequences somewhat high (missing 2-4 weeks of work would be pretty risky for my job, how about yours?). We have lots of video conf tech, so why travel if not really essential, especially to locations/events where the risk would seem to be elevated (if still low)?
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      02-25-2020, 08:17 AM   #579
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
Hierarchy of bureaucracies descending from Simply Horrible to Satan's Anus:

Local Government
State Government
Federal Government
Consortium of Governments (The UN, etc.)
Offspring of Consortium of Governments (The WHO, etc)

They are well intentioned and needed but, unfortunately, no one is really in charge and everyone is risk averse. This leads to the kind of inaction we have seen in this particular instance.
Agreed, I'm not apologizing for the WHO, but I do feel for them. They need to play by certain political rules otherwise their funding/cooperation from governments is cut off and they can't do some good things they do in other parts of Asia/Africa etc. Ergo what you have here in respect to how the WHO is acting unfortunately.

WHO needs to be more independent from influence of large governments, but we live in a real world and that is not going to happen anytime soon.
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      02-25-2020, 08:20 AM   #580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
Agreed, I'm not apologizing for the WHO, but I do feel for them. They need to play by certain political rules otherwise their funding/cooperation from governments is cut off and they can't do some good things they do in other parts of Asia/Africa etc. Ergo what you have here in respect to how the WHO is acting unfortunately.

WHO needs to be more independent from influence of large governments, but we live in a real world and that is not going to happen anytime soon.
There is no need to apologize for the WHO. They are a useful organization who (pun intended), as you say, has to play by political rules. This is to the detriment of the mission of the organization as well as those whom they serve.

And your second point will never happen, unfortunately.
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      02-25-2020, 08:25 AM   #581
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
This is the weird thing, to me. Seems like the odds of getting it are low in the US and Canada because we have few identified cases and those are traced and isolated. But are the odds really as low as they seem? We have had a lot of travel to China, SK and Japan over the last three months, and having seen it “pop up” in Italy and Iran, as well as a few other countries where it has apparently been contained, it seems likely it is here but latent (asymptomatic so far) or misdiagnosed. There is simply not enough data to be sure, however. Then look at some specific cities where there has been a lot of international travel, especially to/from countries with the most cases: Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles?, New Orleans. Maybe Austin, Chicago and NYC. Those with highly concentrated downtowns, convention areas, or in the case of NOLA, Mardi Gras in the Quarter, would seem to have a higher probability of transmission and infection. Still low probability, but maybe an elevated risk in those cities.

Then look at the consequences of getting it. For most, the result is 2-4 weeks of quarantine. Treatment seems to be for the most severe cases/symptoms, similar to pneumonia. No cure, just let it run its course and treat the treatable symptoms. For a very small part of the population, there is much greater risk of negative outcomes (longer treatment, lasting consequences, death).

So the probability is low but the consequences somewhat high (missing 2-4 weeks of work would be pretty risky for my job, how about yours?). We have lots of video conf tech, so why travel if not really essential, especially to locations/events where the risk would seem to be elevated (if still low)?
My wife is traveling for business this week and I wish she wouldn't and just video conference. But, for reasons you stated she is going on the trip.

I agree that the risk is low even if you do get it (assuming you are not currently in a vulnerable age/immuno/compromised health in other ways etc). I'm guessing (and you may have stated this) that many cases are being misdiagnosed as the flu or something similar. Most clinics even in the US don't test for the flu and obviously not the coronavirus.

But, that is my own personal question in all of this. The regular flu is having a relatively bad/more lethal year and nobody government wise seems overly concerned with that. Definitely not to the point of banning travel, quarantining entire cities over it. So that is my fear and somewhat conspiratorial side of me is what aren't we being told? Why are governments etc so much more afraid of this virus than others such as the flu etc?
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      02-25-2020, 08:31 AM   #582
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
My wife is traveling for business this week and I wish she wouldn't and just video conference. But, for reasons you stated she is going on the trip.

I agree that the risk is low even if you do get it (assuming you are not currently in a vulnerable age/immuno/compromised health in other ways etc). I'm guessing (and you may have stated this) that many cases are being misdiagnosed as the flu or something similar. Most clinics even in the US don't test for the flu and obviously not the coronavirus.

But, that is my own personal question in all of this. The regular flu is having a relatively bad/more lethal year and nobody government wise seems overly concerned with that. Definitely not to the point of banning travel, quarantining entire cities over it. So that is my fear and somewhat conspiratorial side of me is what aren't we being told? Why are governments etc so much more afraid of this virus than others such as the flu etc?
The regular flu has a mortality rate about 30x less than Corona Virus.
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      02-25-2020, 09:20 AM   #583
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Minn19. I appreciate your posts. The thing that is troublesome is in the u.s. we seem to be more fearful bout everything. I can see hospitals and medical facilities being the epicenter for this disease. I think it sill get ugly fast. I hope I am wrong

I am 74 and nog personally fearful forme. I am fearful for my immediate family
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      02-25-2020, 09:38 AM   #584
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
...what aren't we being told? Why are governments etc so much more afraid of this virus than others such as the flu etc?
The response of governments is really interesting. Is it much different than SARS or Swine Flu or Ebola? Maybe the hype/fear is all because now we have the Internet to spread information and misinformation faster than governments can publish/update?

I like that narrative, but it fails when we look at the severity of the quarantine/closures in China, Italy, Japan and even for the few cases in the US. If this is just a more deadly flu-type virus, a little hygiene should take care of it, right? The responses of governments seem out of proportion, and that feeds conspiratorial thinking.
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      02-25-2020, 10:07 AM   #585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MKSixer View Post
The regular flu has a mortality rate about 30x less than Corona Virus.
I thought it was closer (agreed, still far apart though) than that this year even though we don't truly know the mortality rate of the coronavirus yet.

It's interesting that the flu kills tens of thousands worldwide every year and most don't bat an eye/even mention it. But, this comes along and you get this response. I get .1% is a lot different than 2% though if that is what the coronavirus rate is. But, it is still tens of thousands of people every year and nothing is really done to help stop the spread of flu except for voluntary flu shots here (US).

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2000cs View Post
The response of governments is really interesting. Is it much different than SARS or Swine Flu or Ebola? Maybe the hype/fear is all because now we have the Internet to spread information and misinformation faster than governments can publish/update?

I like that narrative, but it fails when we look at the severity of the quarantine/closures in China, Italy, Japan and even for the few cases in the US. If this is just a more deadly flu-type virus, a little hygiene should take care of it, right? The responses of governments seem out of proportion, and that feeds conspiratorial thinking.
This is my thoughts as well. The actions don't seem to line up with what they are saying. That obviously is going to raise red flags with most people.
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      02-25-2020, 10:17 AM   #586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
I thought it was closer (agreed, still far apart though) than that this year even though we don't truly know the mortality rate of the coronavirus yet.

It's interesting that the flu kills tens of thousands worldwide every year and most don't bat an eye/even mention it. But, this comes along and you get this response. I get .1% is a lot different than 2% though if that is what the coronavirus rate is. But, it is still tens of thousands of people every year and nothing is really done to help stop the spread of flu except for voluntary flu shots here (US).



This is my thoughts as well. The actions don't seem to line up with what they are saying. That obviously is going to raise red flags with most people.
The vaccination and personal hygiene are the two most important things to combat the spread of this type of disease. We know this but the personal hygiene aspect is completely on the individual and is a complete joker.

Edit: Current death rate is 3.3% based on the numbers from Johns-Hopkins.
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Last edited by MKSixer; 02-25-2020 at 10:30 AM..
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      02-25-2020, 10:35 AM   #587
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I showered this week, does that help?
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      02-25-2020, 10:37 AM   #588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
I thought it was closer (agreed, still far apart though) than that this year even though we don't truly know the mortality rate of the coronavirus yet.

It's interesting that the flu kills tens of thousands worldwide every year and most don't bat an eye/even mention it. But, this comes along and you get this response. I get .1% is a lot different than 2% though if that is what the coronavirus rate is. But, it is still tens of thousands of people every year and nothing is really done to help stop the spread of flu except for voluntary flu shots here (US).
I think the big fear is a potential double whammy where corona patients overwhelm the health system and in turn affect non-corona patients who would otherwise receive proper care.

Wuhan is a clear example of this and I think South Korea might be approaching this scenario. Interesting to note that unlike the US, SKorea never employed a Chinese travel ban.
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      02-25-2020, 11:22 AM   #589
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Flu vaccine effectiveness ranges from 35% to 60% which I've always found a bit amusing considering most people think vaccine = 100% protection.

My wife, my kids (11 and 15), or myself have never gotten the flu vaccine. My kids have never had the flu either. My wife had the flu about 6 years ago and I had it over 20 years ago.

Why is it that the familes I know that get the vaccine are also the ones that tend to get the flu every year? Will the same hold true when they create the Coronavirus vaccine?

Contrary to what Trump is saying, this virus isn't going away anytime soon and will likely be around in some form for 1 to 2 years. Trump does need to take this a bit more seriously than he has been.
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      02-25-2020, 11:32 AM   #590
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^
Ok'd a billion for help.

Croatia and Austria now. Canary Islands hotel on lockdown.

Just flipping scary.
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      02-25-2020, 11:59 AM   #591
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Iran 95 reported cases and 15 deaths. Their Deputy Health Minister says in a news conference he has the virus? Odd.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51628484
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      02-25-2020, 12:19 PM   #592
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It's not a matter of if the novel coronavirus will spread throughout the United States, but when, said Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine expert Nancy Messonnier.

"Disruption to everyday life might be severe," Messonnier, who is the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Tuesday.

Messonnier said she told her children over breakfast that they will need to begin preparing for an escalated outbreak. Parents and caregivers, she said, should ask officials at their children's schools about plans for school dismissals, closures, and teleschool in case the virus spreads in their school districts.

"I contacted my local school superintendent this morning with exactly those questions," Messonnier said. "All of these questions can help you be better prepared for what might happen."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...virus-outbreak

When a Director at the CDC starts prepping her kids...ru roh
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      02-25-2020, 12:35 PM   #593
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      02-25-2020, 12:45 PM   #594
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Here is the CDC briefing: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-19-update.mp3
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