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      02-17-2020, 01:07 AM   #23
autoart
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Look at the green new deal put forth by the democrats. The government can change everything for us.
I live in Calif. and their is a target on ice back. They want to get rid of it.
Who cares what "WE" have to say.
They can do it a few different ways: Raise the price of gas(tax the hell out of it).
Mandate to stop selling/making ice by any year they choose.
Give large tax breaks to ev cars.
With such a small slice of the market I don't see it going away naturally for a long time.
Depending on who we elect as president on down will be the downfall of ICE.
Sorry to get a little political, but that's my thoughts on it.
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      02-17-2020, 02:58 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by autoart View Post
Look at the green new deal put forth by the democrats. The government can change everything for us.
I live in Calif. and their is a target on ice back. They want to get rid of it.
Who cares what "WE" have to say.
They can do it a few different ways: Raise the price of gas(tax the hell out of it).
Mandate to stop selling/making ice by any year they choose.
Give large tax breaks to ev cars.
With such a small slice of the market I don't see it going away naturally for a long time.
Depending on who we elect as president on down will be the downfall of ICE.
Sorry to get a little political, but that's my thoughts on it.
Still, think of the logistics.....the government bans ICE, and then what do you do with the millions of them on the roads. Even if they wanted to it would take decades to get rid of them all and get folks in EV's.

I don't disagree with you in that the only way to get people to switch will be to mandate it because at the rate it's going there doesn't seem to be much interest or desire for the masses to buy EV's. Even with huge incentives sales aren't great. My daily for example has about 70,000km on it.

My wife is about retire and I've been retired for a couple of years no. I have no interest in selling it and buying an EV. If I can I'll keep this thing for at least 6 more years, maybe longer. What about the people that are taking delivery of new cars right now or in the next year. The average life expectancy of a new car is 11.6 years.

Then you raise the tax issue, government is addicted to tax. The taxes collected on gas are enormous, if the government forces everyone off of ICE where does it make up that lost revenue? Either taxing electricity or something else.

This is a huge complicated issue and the transition is going to take a very long time, decades I suspect.
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      02-17-2020, 03:07 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by autoart View Post
Look at the green new deal put forth by the democrats. The government can change everything for us.
I live in Calif. and their is a target on ice back. They want to get rid of it.
Who cares what "WE" have to say.
They can do it a few different ways: Raise the price of gas(tax the hell out of it).
Mandate to stop selling/making ice by any year they choose.
Give large tax breaks to ev cars.
With such a small slice of the market I don't see it going away naturally for a long time.
Depending on who we elect as president on down will be the downfall of ICE.
Sorry to get a little political, but that's my thoughts on it.
From the National Post Driving section. This article was written by David Booth, an automotive journalist who is also an electrical engineer. He isn't anti EV, but writes extensively about the future of the auto industry, EV's etc. I've cut an pasted part of his article and attached the link if you want to read the whole thing.


https://driving.ca/features/feature-...nterproductive

So, just last week, his Conservative government decided to advance Britain’s automobile electrification plan by five years to 2035.

Now, some might cheer his boldness, no matter the cynicism of his motivation. Anything to advance the cause, as it were. But Johnson’s trademark recklessness might yet be the electric vehicle’s Waterloo because, not only did the tousled hair one — seriously, it’s one thing to take political pointers from The Donald, but does he have to take grooming advice, too — propose banning traditional ICE-powered automobiles, but also hybrids. Yes, with any form of gasoline motivation forbidden and fuel cell vehicles all but stillborn, the only cars for sale in the UK come 2035 will be Elon Musk’s cherished battery-powered EVs.

To fans of the electric car, this may sound like Nirvana: The infernal-combustion engine will finally be no more. But what are the consequences of such a seemingly from-the-hip prognostication? How will the UK cope with such a radical transformation?

Well, besides the massive incentivization required to reach that ambitious goal, this is the most startling statistic the hyper-progressive climate changer will have to ignore: According to the UK’s current plan of being carbon-neutral by 2050 — which, considering the lifespan of the modern car, will be just about when the last petrol-fueled cars will be off the road — accommodating that many EVs will require some 25.3 million charging stations, both home and remote. That would, says the Telegraph, require installing some 4,000 new chargers — all, no doubt, with yet more government subsidization — every day for the next 30 years. I’ll leave it to you to try to contemplate the cost; my calculator doesn’t go that high.

More importantly, what if the rest of the world — Norway and the Netherlands have already promised earlier bans — were to follow suit? Exactly what does a completely battery-powered auto industry look like?

Well, the first thing will be finding enough automakers to produce 80 million battery-powered cars. Champion Tesla’s recent success all you like, but just getting to 500,000 cars built a year has been a long, drawn out affair that sucked up untold billions in investments, loans and subsidies to get to — God help me, maybe I will buy TSLA at $800 a share — two incredible quarters of profitability.

But forget, as radical greenies do, the investment needed to produce so many EVs. Ignore even that sourcing that much lithium, as per Toyota, will be very difficult. The real calamity is that pushing for such early adoption might be the demise of legacy automakers.

Tesla survives mostly grace to the largesse of Wall Street which, thanks to low interest rates, has cash to burn and no place to put it. Besides, Tesla, as per Elon Musk’s telling, was never much concerned about profitability. Neither, judging by its recent pricing promises, is Rivian. Any shortfall in sales or profit margin is simply made up by scurrying back to investors.

Legacy automakers have no such luxury. Yes, both management and shareholders want them to modernize, but insist they do so while returning a healthy return on investment. EVs are loss leaders for both the near- and medium-term, so without the stock market bailing them out seemingly every second quarter, traditional automakers have no choice but to fund their electrification programs with the profits generated by selling traditional — that should be read gasoline-powered — automobiles. Listen to the automakers, and with the exception of Toyota and perhaps Volkswagen, no matter how committed they are to electrification, there’s no way they can generate enough profit selling ICEs for just the next 15 years to pay for the development of an all-BEV product portfolio.

So, who would benefit from this demise of the traditional automakers? Well, certainly the disruptors — Tesla and Rivian, et al — certainly stand to gain market share. But not even the most generous of wealthy hedge funds can come up with enough money to ramp up that much EV production that fast.

However, there is a huge, state-run economy out there that would love to step in, already has a plan to force its citizens to go all BEV, has no shame in tilting markets with corporate subsidization and also suffers from, shall we call it, a mild case of kleptocracy when it comes to acquiring the technology required to export its business. But, hey, who are we to say China shouldn’t have the lion’s share of the future’s automobile production?

Now I hear you already: Blaming Greta for China taking over the world’s car industry is a little too paranoid and polemic for you. Frankly, me too. But how is an air-head actor protesting that we all need to give up putting milk in our cereal and/or a teenaged activist promoting sailing as a viable alternative to air travel any less crazy?

That’s why I want to make this absolutely crystal clear: This rant — and that is certainly what it has turned into — is not about denying a need to reduce our carbon footprint. Electrification — be it battery, fuel-cell or PHEV-powered — will be a huge, if not overwhelming, motivator of future mobility. It certainly isn’t — as so many try to belittle — an old man’s fear of change: I can’t wait to drive the battery/fuel cell hybrid that I believe will be the ultimate salvation of the automotive industry. It is not even — and this to me is the saddest part of this story — because making prophets out of teenaged girls is positively medieval.

It’s because childish theatrics influence stupid politicians to make bad decisions. We need to do better.
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      02-17-2020, 07:21 AM   #26
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Combustion especially in heavy duty trucking is going to be around for a long time as EV take up too much space and weigh too much.

Last edited by NormanConquest; 02-17-2020 at 09:17 AM..
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      02-17-2020, 09:06 AM   #27
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^^ Yep, and you gotta think about all these government jobs where people travel hundreds of miles a day with little to no time to charge. My Dad works for local government, and drives his van at least 200 miles a day, often pulling equipment behind it. No EV will be able to do that in the near future at a price point where the govt will switch over. When I did lawn care for the same branch, we always had 2 (and sometimes 3) trucks loaded up with equipment, pulling trailers with mowers on them. Same case. I was also the designated dump truck driver, that can't be EV any time soon. We are a good ways away from seeing the death of ICE vehicles. Maybe my kids (that I don't have) will see it, but I highly doubt I will.
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      02-17-2020, 11:28 AM   #28
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Follow the Money

Like all things, it will come down to money.
Most car manufacturers have figured out they’d make more money on EV’s than on ICE. Fewer parts, less regulation, fewer warranty claims, the list goes on.

Once the existing development pipeline of ICE is empty (which is a sunk cost) you’ll be hard pressed to find a regular selection of ICE cars. Development cycles are what, 5 to 7 years? So in about 5 years purchase of ICE passenger vehicles will be mostly history. Add another 10-15 years for last of the ice cars to leave the road and you’re at about 20 years.
Commercial transportation is about 7 years behind that; we’re just starting to see electric transport trucks. Maybe 30 years for that.

As for missing combustion, I will probably not miss it.. I’m old but being a Gen Xer, I can move with the times.
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      02-17-2020, 11:33 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canuck335 View Post
Like all things, it will come down to money.
Most car manufacturers have figured out they’d make more money on EV’s than on ICE. Fewer parts, less regulation, fewer warranty claims, the list goes on.

Once the existing development pipeline of ICE is empty (which is a sunk cost) you’ll be hard pressed to find a regular selection of ICE cars. Development cycles are what, 5 to 7 years? So in about 5 years purchase of ICE passenger vehicles will be mostly history. Add another 10-15 years for last of the ice cars to leave the road and you’re at about 20 years.
Commercial transportation is about 7 years behind that; we’re just starting to see electric transport trucks. Maybe 30 years for that.

As for missing combustion, I will probably not miss it.. I’m old but being a Gen Xer, I can move with the times.
Perhaps, but if folks aren't buying them then manufacturers won't make them. They can only make money if they sell them, so far the uptake isn't that great. You might be right, but I think it will take longer than you think.
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      02-17-2020, 12:46 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty Dog View Post
Perhaps, but if folks aren't buying them then manufacturers won't make them. They can only make money if they sell them, so far the uptake isn't that great. You might be right, but I think it will take longer than you think.
It’s accelerating and previous estimates by OPEC, Bloomberg, and EIA have had to be revised upwards.
https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-...-over-the-map/

You’re not seeing evidence of mass uptake because major manufacturers are not pushing them yet. Their 2nd gen EVs wont be out of the gate for another few years. 2023-2025 Is when all hell breaks loose.

I was at the Canadian Autoshow this past weekend and the only cars people were lining up to get into were the Tesla’s.
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      02-17-2020, 02:40 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canuck335 View Post
It’s accelerating and previous estimates by OPEC, Bloomberg, and EIA have had to be revised upwards.
https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-...-over-the-map/

You’re not seeing evidence of mass uptake because major manufacturers are not pushing them yet. Their 2nd gen EVs wont be out of the gate for another few years. 2023-2025 Is when all hell breaks loose.

I was at the Canadian Autoshow this past weekend and the only cars people were lining up to get into were the Tesla’s.
So, I don't think Autoshow's represent the majority of buyers, and Tesla is still not the norm, that might be curiosity. Regardless, the transition just can't happen all that fast. If every new car buyer wanted an EV, they couldn't be produced that fast and the infrastructure couldn't support it. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it isn't happening, I'm saying it can't happen very fast no matter what.
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      02-18-2020, 12:09 PM   #32
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ICE will never disappear unless little green men come down out of a worm hole just to share their technology.
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      02-18-2020, 01:35 PM   #33
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ICE will never disappear unless little green men come down out of a worm hole just to share their technology.
This.
And it may be in a different form but still ICE via Hydrogen, LP, etc.
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      02-18-2020, 06:14 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by autoart View Post
Look at the green new deal put forth by the democrats. The government can change everything for us.
I live in Calif. and their is a target on ice back. They want to get rid of it.
Who cares what "WE" have to say.
They can do it a few different ways: Raise the price of gas(tax the hell out of it).
Mandate to stop selling/making ice by any year they choose.
Give large tax breaks to ev cars.
With such a small slice of the market I don't see it going away naturally for a long time.
Depending on who we elect as president on down will be the downfall of ICE.
Sorry to get a little political, but that's my thoughts on it.
Hear! Hear! I'm constantly amazed by the fatalism. Vote these fools out! Politicians work for us. They aren't our commanders that get to go against the will of the people. We're the customer; and as they say, the customer is always right.
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      02-18-2020, 09:08 PM   #35
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Electric cars will take over and replace ICE when the tech evolves to the point that it's better. When you can have a 1,000 HP, 2500 lb, $50k car with 1,000 mile range. When the billion people in China can ride an electric scooter that costs $25 and goes for days. When an electric powered train will pull 100 cars behind it across the country on a charge. When a cargo ship can go from Asia to the US on a single charge.

Until then, ICE will stick around. Oh, and when the above happens and you (or maybe your great grandkids depending upon how long it takes) are driving your electric car that demolishes every stat your old BMW put up, yeah, you may talk about the "old days" in much the same way my grandfather talked about his horse but would you really trade your electric car for an ICE? Nah. Not at that point. Just like gramps wasn't about to trade his Cadillac for a horse. You'll miss the IDEA of an ICE but you wont actually miss the tech. Just like no one misses the telegraph, 8 tracks, or washing dishes by hand.

Last edited by DETRoadster; 02-19-2020 at 08:28 AM..
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      02-18-2020, 09:48 PM   #36
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It really depends on your definition of end. but some of the projections i have read are that almost all vehicles sold in 2060 will be electric.
Will this be true and how long will take for existing cars to go I guess will depend mostly on regulations.
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      02-19-2020, 01:05 PM   #37
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It really depends on your definition of end. but some of the projections i have read are that almost all vehicles sold in 2060 will be electric.
Will this be true and how long will take for existing cars to go I guess will depend mostly on regulations.
Remember regulations are within our control. Be careful whom you vote for.
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      02-26-2020, 02:38 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
Remember regulations are within our control. Be careful whom you vote for.
This is laughable. Politicians can be bought and sold on the open market
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      02-28-2020, 11:10 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canuck335 View Post
This is laughable. Politicians can be bought and sold on the open market
Who gives the best BJs? Oil executives or Elon?
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