[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

This is interesting. Now multiple accounts of Teslas wedging themselves under semi trailers. Seems perhaps the autopilot may be "seeing" the space under the trailer as fair game to occupy.

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/03/16/..._WxJdEz86EL1Eq

I thought Tesla solved this problem back in 2013 after the dude in Florida killed himself while watching a movie on his portable DVD player. Maybe when Tesla's Auto-piloted electric tractor trailers hit the streets, the two Teslas will communicate with each other and not have the little ones run under the big ones.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

This is interesting. Now multiple accounts of Teslas wedging themselves under semi trailers. Seems perhaps the autopilot may be "seeing" the space under the trailer as fair game to occupy.

I've always thought auto-pilot was a red herring for auto sales, at least in the 2020s ... that said, the race to productize the tech is interesting ... especially Tesla's latest claim getting rid of radar and using only visual.

That said, this is impressive:

I still don't think most consumers care and it's more of a also-this feature.

[KRS_SN]

I think this is because customers who want green/sustainable stuff already know what is and isn't (for them) and don't need to be marketed to - everyone else, which is the vast majority of car customers, just want a cool car].......

Cool helps though as I being able to brag about auto pilot etc though 90%,maybe not need or use them.
Being green is definitely a thing as people want to be appearing to fo the climate conscious thing.
He'll my beer loving pot bellied friend gave up drink meet and started recycling everything and even came around when he knew I was clearing out my garage to see if he could take away anything that could be reused. Good for him but he tells me buying tesla, ''opened his eyes' good for him.and the environment.


BMW is struggling fairly mightily to figure out how to grow in each segment with only 1 (or arguably 3) brands ... I think BMW was hoping Mini would take their VW brand niche, but that's not happened and BMW is stuck and flailing trying out crazy stuff like their new design language.[/QUOTE]...

By heavily involving their sales in SUVs they are least likely to be affected by the EV problem.
As much as I hate the grilles the cool factor might actually be with them lungs.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I thought Tesla solved this problem back in 2013 after the dude in Florida killed himself while watching a movie on his portable DVD player. Maybe when Tesla's Auto-piloted electric tractor trailers hit the streets, the two Teslas will communicate with each other and not have the little ones run under the big ones.

My immediate thought was Elon would turn the bad press into a feature. Like when the Tesla Class 8 comes out there will be some feature that allows a Model S to nest in under the Tesla trailer and take advantage of drafting the semi to increase highway range.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

I've always thought auto-pilot was a red herring for auto sales, at least in the 2020s ... that said, the race to productize the tech is interesting ... especially Tesla's latest claim getting rid of radar and using only visual.

That said, this is impressive:

I still don't think most consumers care and it's more of a also-this feature.

Interesting to see about 1/2 way through the video when the Tesla encounters double parked cars and autopilot allows the car to cross over into the oncoming lane to get around. I wonder if it would have done the same on a double yellow center line. probably not. it's a pretty smart system and I have zero doubt that Tesla autopilot on a dark, rainy, night has better vision than my aging eyes.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

My immediate thought was Elon would turn the bad press into a feature. Like when the Tesla Class 8 comes out there will be some feature that allows a Model S to nest in under the Tesla trailer and take advantage of drafting the semi to increase highway range.

Speaking of Class 8 sales, who buys them? i.e., mostly fleets buyers? mostly independent operators? I don't know ... but questions:

(1.) For fleet sales, then the trucks with the easiest, lowest maintenance with the most infrastructure would sell; individual operators might look more at driver features as they may do some of their own maintenance & standardization might not be as important.

(2.) Operator routes driven, i.e., is the semi mostly trans-con routes or intra-state routes? Range, comfort, etc would be sales factors there for both fleet and individuals.

(3.) Operating costs - obvs large fuel savings (or driver costs) would be important


I don't think class 4/5 FSD/AP is gonna be a thing this decade (even though it's technically possible today, that product is too expensive) ... and Tesla must be thinking this way too because lately they're pushing the "train" concept meaning, say, 3 trucks in line and only the 1st truck has a driver ...

Anyway, my question is, who's gonna buy a Tesla Class 8 Semi? like who's the core customer here? I don't get it probably out of ignorance of the market ... here's what sells now:



Way back in my civil engineering days one of my clients was this badass chick who owned a trucking company with Freightliners ... I just can't see her buying Teslas unless there was a HUGE cost advantage for the range trade-off ... will there be?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

By heavily involving [BMW] sales in SUVs they are least likely to be affected by the EV problem.

How so?

Right now I'd say the battle for a future in auto sales comes down to 1 thing: battery production capacity.

Oddly, VW is only targeting 240GWh by 2030 with 50% coming from partners! Compare that to Tesla who's targeting 2TWh by 2030 ... we can quibble over Elon's exaggera-predictions, but $TSLA seems pretty damn serious about battery capacity based on their 3 continents of factory square footage coming online versus VW which has a LOT of factories to convert.

The BMW X5 45e is probably the best vehicle BMW makes right now ... double the battery capacity and it'd be a breakout superseller. Quadruple it and get rid of the ICE and it'd be the hottest selling BEV other than a Model 3. Hell, their BEV X3 would be a huge seller if they could commit and boost the range and power (and sold it in the US).

Unfortunately BMW isn't planning on producing big selling BEVs, rather beaver-faced iX type vehicles, marketed to silly twits who can't afford them:


"look ma, no hands!"

This will not go well for BMW.

[KRS_SN]

BMW doesn't intend to poach sales from its successful ice platform yet as X3 X5 etc are very hugely successful and are money spinners. Also why 45 e is slightly hamstrung intentionally. Also imagine Model y+x sales v x3 +x5 sales as compared to model 3 v 3 series. ie BMW is strongest in the SUV sector.
The beaver ix etc will just hopefully poach a few from merc/Tesla/audi/LR etc.
All that battery that Tesla produces isn't going to go into premium SUVs. Mostly into sedans. Volkswagen in trying to copy Tesla but not coming out with pretty good products with no cool factor are likely on a lose lose(unless they give fantastic lease deals).
When you mentioned grille I thought new m3/4 agreed the ix is just a poor ugly effort.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Speaking of Class 8 sales, who buys them? i.e., mostly fleets buyers? mostly independent operators? I don't know ... but questions:

(1.) For fleet sales, then the trucks with the easiest, lowest maintenance with the most infrastructure would sell; individual operators might look more at driver features as they may do some of their own maintenance & standardization might not be as important.

(2.) Operator routes driven, i.e., is the semi mostly trans-con routes or intra-state routes? Range, comfort, etc would be sales factors there for both fleet and individuals.

(3.) Operating costs - obvs large fuel savings (or driver costs) would be important


I don't think class 4/5 FSD/AP is gonna be a thing this decade (even though it's technically possible today, that product is too expensive) ... and Tesla must be thinking this way too because lately they're pushing the "train" concept meaning, say, 3 trucks in line and only the 1st truck has a driver ...

Anyway, my question is, who's gonna buy a Tesla Class 8 Semi? like who's the core customer here? I don't get it probably out of ignorance of the market ... here's what sells now:



Way back in my civil engineering days one of my clients was this badass chick who owned a trucking company with Freightliners ... I just can't see her buying Teslas unless there was a HUGE cost advantage for the range trade-off ... will there be?

Well, well, well, 5 years on BP and FINALLY a topic I'm actually highly qualified to speak to. I worked for 11 years for one of those companies in your chart...

Fleet sales of Class 8 make up the largest percentage of purchases when you look across all brands. Each brand has a different mix of fleet vs. Owner/Operator. Freightliner is the GM of the Class 8 market. They make their money on volume so it's no surprise they sell a lot of fleet vehicles. Of the manufactures on the chart, Pete is the most bespoke. So they have a higher percentage of O/O sales than Freightliner.

1) You're spot on. Fleets want low operating costs and high up time. A lot of them take the same approach Southwest Airlines takes; Buy only 1 spec of vehicle so you can make repairs, maintenance, etc. easier through standardization. $ per mile is everything to these guys. An O/O on the otherhand tends to care less, as you said, and wants things like 197 individual chrome ringed gauges, chicken lights, headache rack, chrome bumper that weighs 900 pounds, etc. Lots of fleets will buy 95% base model, stripped down, trucks and 5% top of the line. The top of the line with all the bells and whistles go to their most trusted, tenured, drivers as a retention method. "Make a million accident-free miles and get a flashy truck."

2) Both. You have to remember the vehicle class denotes GVW capacity. If you need to tow 80,000 pounds you need a class 8. Doesnt matter if that's interstate, intrastate, or from one end of the street to the other.

3) Correct. Operating costs, fuel being the biggest, is always a concern for fleets. For what they are, a modern class 8 truck is really efficient. 10 MPG, fully loaded, at highway speed is common. If you're running 250,000+ miles per year and you can improve fuel economy by 1% the savings are meaningful.

Anyway, the market for a Class 8 Tesla has got to be short run, intercity transport. Think Airport to Amazon distribution center and back, 4 times a day. In-city stop and go traffic plummets that 10 MPG of a class 8 down to about 2. Your over the road tag-team of 2 drivers can cover 20 hours of driving in a shift and carry enough fuel to not stop. Until Tesla can do 20 hours of straight highway pulling 80,000 pounds gross, there isnt much of a case for it. A true hybrid that can run on batteries up to say 30 MPH, then pivot to diesel, now that could have some merit. a few of the big players like Freightliner and PACCAR worked on that a while back but I'm not sure it went anywhere. i think the challenge is the every pound of batteries you add takes away a pound of cargo.

Where I see HUGE potential is in electric cargo vans. I was stuck at a light in S. Seattle the other day and counted a line of 37 Amazon Prime vans all leaving the DC. I'm looking out my window and there's 2 prime vans on my street right now. Every one of those vans leaves the DC in the morning and returns to the same DC at night. if you can electrify them and get a full day's route out of a charge, then charge at night. Man, that's a winner on so many levels.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

Well, well, well, 5 years on BP and FINALLY a topic I'm actually highly qualified to speak to. I worked for 11 years for one of those companies in your chart...

There's no super-like for posts, but here's how I'm picturing you writing up that knowledge-bomb post:


great post!

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

Interesting to see about 1/2 way through the video when the Tesla encounters double parked cars and autopilot allows the car to cross over into the oncoming lane to get around. I wonder if it would have done the same on a double yellow center line. probably not. it's a pretty smart system and I have zero doubt that Tesla autopilot on a dark, rainy, night has better vision than my aging eyes.

Well, I'd not be so sure. I have a work colleague, a systems engineer, serious tech-head who bought a Model 3 for the tech and the self-driving capability. His car is a 2019 issue.

When I periodically ask how the self-driving mode is working, he has pointed out several times that at night and in inclement weather, and especially in construction zones, the Autopilot system gives up and asks for human override. Poorly marked lanes and rough pavement surfaces, such as milled pavement, wreak havoc with the sensors and Autopilot returns to the better-adapted interface, the human sitting in the driver's seat. I don't think the AI in Tesla's Autopilot can match the NI (natural intelligence) of the experienced human driver. While your aged eyes may not be what they used to be, your brain has massive amounts of stored data it can instantly recall, and make up with experience, what your eyes may be lacking in a particular situation.

Humans can drive cars better than computers, it's just humans can easily degrade into lack of interest... As we falsely add safety systems to cars, the level of a false sense of security increases and the concern for self-responsibility decreases, which leaves the driver vulnerable when the tech fails him.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Well, I'd not be so sure. I have a work colleague, a systems engineer, serious tech-head who bought a Model 3 for the tech and the self-driving capability. His car is a 2019 issue.

When I periodically ask how the self-driving mode is working, he has pointed out several times that at night and in inclement weather, and especially in construction zones, the Autopilot system gives up and asks for human override. Poorly marked lanes and rough pavement surfaces, such as milled pavement, wreak havoc with the sensors and Autopilot returns to the better-adapted interface, the human sitting in the driver's seat. I don't think the AI in Tesla's Autopilot can match the NI (natural intelligence) of the experienced human driver. While your aged eyes may not be what they used to be, your brain has massive amounts of stored data it can instantly recall, and make up with experience, what your eyes may be lacking in a particular situation.

Humans can drive cars better than computers, it's just humans can easily degrade into lack of interest... As we falsely add safety systems to cars, the level of a false sense of security increases and the concern for self-responsibility decreases, which leaves the driver vulnerable when the tech fails him.

All true. In "normal" situations where you've only added darkness and maybe rain on a smeary windshield with glare from oncoming headlights, I'm still 100% sure the Tesla is better than me with my Lasik induced halos and all. But yeah, add in the real unknowns like a construction barricade haphazardly placed in the road and some debris blowing across your path while a drunk on a bicycle wobbles around in front of you. I can see how the X factors can easily pile up and cause the computer to give up. But these are all just data inputs and the reason it gives up is because it's not got the smarts yet to understand and deal with them. Not that there's too many and it's overwhelmed. That's where the computer will always beat the human; intaking and processing massive amounts of info. it's only a matter of time. Our days piloting a car better than a computer are numbered.

Remember all the dudes in the 80's when ABS came out who would puff up their chest and talk about how they could "feel" the pedal and the car better and stop faster than a car with ABS through their superior pedal modulation? Yeah, those dude all just mash the pedal to the floor and pray just like the rest of us when the sh*t hits the fan. Maybe an F1 driver can still actually brake faster through his superior skills, but for the rest of us, we just let the computer take over. Sure, we still get to decide WHEN to brake and the computer manages HOW to brake. But even the WHEN decision is starting to be encroached upon.

[Fly320s]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

All true. In "normal" situations where you've only added darkness and maybe rain on a smeary windshield with glare from oncoming headlights, I'm still 100% sure the Tesla is better than me with my Lasik induced halos and all. But yeah, add in the real unknowns like a construction barricade haphazardly placed in the road and some debris blowing across your path while a drunk on a bicycle wobbles around in front of you. I can see how the X factors can easily pile up and cause the computer to give up. But these are all just data inputs and the reason it gives up is because it's not got the smarts yet to understand and deal with them. Not that there's too many and it's overwhelmed. That's where the computer will always beat the human; intaking and processing massive amounts of info. it's only a matter of time. Our days piloting a car better than a computer are numbered.

The Tesla most definitely has vision trouble, also. I have a 2019 model 3. The onboard cameras do not handle direct sunlight and flickering sunlight/shadows very well. Most every time I drive it, I get a message that says the "autopilot" is unavailable because one of the B pillar cameras is not working. That happens when the sun is shining directly on the B pillar camera and when there are shadows flickering across the B pillar camera.

The Tesla "autopilot" also randomly jams on the brakes because it senses an obstacle on the road ahead, even though there is nothing there. At highway speeds, it scares the crap out of me and could easily cause an accident.

I absolutely refuse to use the "autopilot" when I drive that car. And I put autopilot in quotes because that device is not really capable of autonomous function. At least, I don't trust it to work autonomously. At best, it should be labeled as, and used as, a driver's aid.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Fly320s

The Tesla most definitely has vision trouble, also. I have a 2019 model 3. The onboard cameras do not handle direct sunlight and flickering sunlight/shadows very well. Most every time I drive it, I get a message that says the "autopilot" is unavailable because one of the B pillar cameras is not working. That happens when the sun is shining directly on the B pillar camera and when there are shadows flickering across the B pillar camera.

The Tesla "autopilot" also randomly jams on the brakes because it senses an obstacle on the road ahead, even though there is nothing there. At highway speeds, it scares the crap out of me and could easily cause an accident.

I absolutely refuse to use the "autopilot" when I drive that car. And I put autopilot in quotes because that device is not really capable of autonomous function. At least, I don't trust it to work autonomously. At best, it should be labeled as, and used as, a driver's aid.

Yeah, the brake assist warning feature on my M2 panics too. I damn near got rear ended a few years back in heavy traffic on I5 when someone merged into my lane. Yes, the slot was slim but I was doing about 20, he was doing about 20, and the dude behind me was doing about 20. In otherwords, distances were short becuase you know, bumper to bumper traffic, but we were all matched speed wise and had it under control. My M panicked and mashed on the brakes causing the guy behind me to panic brake and nearly hit me. I'm sure the guy behind him did the same and nearly hit him. I'm not sure if the BMW system looks for turn signals in the next lane over as a clue that the car ahead may be merging into your lane? In this case the guy didnt signal his intent to come into my lane. BUT I was not caught unaware because in true human fashion, he actually turned his head to look and we made eye contact. I could see him turning his steering wheel: Human, 1 point. BMW brake Assist, 0.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

Yeah, the brake assist warning feature on my M2 panics too. I damn near got rear ended a few years back in heavy traffic on I5 when someone merged into my lane. Yes, the slot was slim but I was doing about 20, he was doing about 20, and the dude behind me was doing about 20. In otherwords, distances were short becuase you know, bumper to bumper traffic, but we were all matched speed wise and had it under control. My M panicked and mashed on the brakes causing the guy behind me to panic brake and nearly hit me. I'm sure the guy behind him did the same and nearly hit him. I'm not sure if the BMW system looks for turn signals in the next lane over as a clue that the car ahead may be merging into your lane? In this case the guy didnt signal his intent to come into my lane. BUT I was not caught unaware because in true human fashion, he actually turned his head to look and we made eye contact. I could see him turning his steering wheel: Human, 1 point. BMW brake Assist, 0.

I have a New Bronco on order. It has "Ford Co-Pilot 360" in it. I made sure with the salesman, who has a Ford Ranger with the same system, that it can be turned off and left off (i.e. not reset with each ignition cycle). First thing I do when I get the Bronco many months from now, it turning that effing system off. If I ever own a car and it panic brakes or panic steers for me, f-that, it's out of the fleet.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I have a New Bronco on order. It has "Ford Co-Pilot 360" in it. I made sure with the salesman, who has a Ford Ranger with the same system, that it can be turned off and left off (i.e. not reset with each ignition cycle). First thing I do when I get the Bronco many months from now, it turning that effing system off. If I ever own a car and it panic brakes or panic steers for me, f-that, it's out of the fleet.

Pics when you take delivery please! I'm super jealous!!!! Which package did you get?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by DETRoadster

Pics when you take delivery please! I'm super jealous!!!! Which package did you get?

Black Diamond trim. No packages. But did get the advanced transfer case. Will get the door bars and Bimini top from Ford when they can be ordered. I'm a late reservation, so I'm model year 2022 delivery. I'm thinking May '22 delivery.

I look forward to getting it. Been a Ford Guy well before I was a Bimmerhead.

[Fly320s]

The new Bronco looks awesome. Not so much the Sport.

[DETRoadster]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Black Diamond trim. No packages. But did get the advanced transfer case. Will get the door bars and Bimini top from Ford when they can be ordered. I'm a late reservation, so I'm model year 2022 delivery. I'm thinking May '22 delivery.

I look forward to getting it. Been a Ford Guy well before I was a Bimmerhead.

Nice choice!

[F32Fleet]

So the games begin. Due to security concerns Tesla vehicles are being restricted by use from employees in defense and key state-owned companies.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by F32Fleet

So the games begin. Due to security concerns Tesla vehicles are being restricted by use from employees in defense and key state-owned companies.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

Lol, Communists worrying about spying on people. Love it.

[KRS_SN]

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/opinio...o-longer-given