BMW
X1 / X2
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums Off-Topic Discussions Board Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      11-11-2020, 09:04 PM   #177
Joekerr
Is Joe King
Joekerr's Avatar
6569
Rep
1,884
Posts

Drives: 2017 Audi S6
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Toronto, ON

iTrader: (0)

I might consider a Tesla in 3-5 years if there are sufficient infrastructure investments, and I'm satisfied the battery is still good in very cold temperatures.

In the meantime, here's my contribution to the thread - your Tesla can give you a blowjob now. That ought to be right up certain of the Muskrat fans alley I figure.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/07/t...why-you-think/
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lups View Post
he's Canadian. By international law we all must worship him and all other products of the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Rudi View Post
Joe's mind and vocabulary are much like being served something that you don't want to swallow on a 24k gold platter.....with 5 star service.
Appreciate 0
      11-11-2020, 09:36 PM   #178
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joekerr View Post

Your Tesla can give you a blowjob now.
First of all, this is a super inefficient way to get a BJ.

Second, the price of hookers is at an all time low right now so what kind of idiot would pay a premium for electric??

Third, this is super niche with hardly any sales - as soon as the big brothels start competing with Tesla they're DONE!

Who even believes this stuff??
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 1
Joekerr6568.50

      11-12-2020, 02:07 AM   #179
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Hmmm...



He's really blown away by the driving experience including on the autobahn, but ... I dunno ...
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      11-12-2020, 05:44 AM   #180
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
8067
Rep
15,117
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Those are fairly common Business School cases that include interviews with the Japanese execs who were there (and the US consultants who tried to help).

Same with Samuel Adams Lite being, originally, a failure so mid-90s some of the consultants went looking for something European they could import (since fancy sold better) and they found Stella Artois which was a funny inside joke because SA, same initials. Stella has just bought Labatt's which gave them a north american base and those dudes paved the way for millions of pretentious americans to overpay for mediocre beer.

Those were also the days that gave birth to "private equity" groups like Bain Capital who decided it was easier (and far more lucrative) to buy a company and fix it versus get hired by it as consultants. Unfortunately the combination of boston consultants and wall street led to LBOs and the destruction of profit incentives in favor of financial shell games which brings us back to mid-teens shale oil and the wall of debt PEGs have created there that's about to topple and kill oil prices for the next few years.

Connections.

Anyway, since nobody's reading this anymore, as for Marin County mountain bikes, which were originally modded Schwinn World Tour road bikes I happened to be there for that one and stupidly traded an original Specialized Stumpjumper for a Diamond Back Apex with new-fangled index shifting. At the time it was a great trade cause that chromoly Apex is still the best riding mountain bike I've ever had, but I bet that Stumpy would be worth a lot now.
Man, you just can't deal with people who call you on your shit. LOL.

But I do agree, Stella Artois is a mediocre beer.
__________________
A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Appreciate 0
      11-13-2020, 09:41 PM   #181
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Man, you just can't deal with people who call you on your shit.
Given nobody in this thread (or the last one) has ever done that, how would we know?

Building on that, given how consistently wrong your TSLA analysis has been (damn those 20 years of magazine articles!), some unsolicited advice:

If you were gonna short TSLA, given Elon probably has covid, now's the time! If you're looking for a cheap ground-floor opportunity, I'd look to hydrogen but it's hard to say who's going to be the breakout there ... bet on whomever you think is most wrong.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      11-14-2020, 08:35 PM   #182
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Post

Today's BEV topic: Myth Busting!
** WARNING: major business nerd analyst stuff ahead **

As an investor and car lover I've been fascinated to watch the electric auto market; it appears to at least "rhyme" with history, i.e., transition from horses & trains to autos & trucks ... and here we are at the beginning of a new revolution!

Since I've already posted BMW's corporate roadmap & financials, I'll switch to Volkswagen as a proxy for "the Bigs": all content is directly from VAG, mostly from the last 3 months.

As a preface, a few points:

• VAG chops up their brands into segments (which is important to their BEV strategy) - 2018 content:



• VAG like most has gotten blasted by COVID (ouch!):



• VAG is building 2 BEV platforms: PPE for the premium markets and MEB for volume markets (from 2018, so that strategy is still in play!):



• And, waaay back in 2018 VAG realized their BEV platforms weren't traditional autos, but rather complex internet devices:



On to the myths:

(1.) ICE is soooo much cheaper than BEVs! Mmm No.

First a few business truisms:

• High-volume products are cheaper to produce than low-volume products
• Mature technology products are cheaper to produce than nascent technology products.

Well, BEVs are relatively new tech and low volume products, yet despite that, BEVs are ALREADY comparable in ownership costs to ICE.
This is like a pre-assembly-line Ford being equal in ownership costs to a horse!
i.e., it's pants-shitting time for anyone in the ICE business. Which why VAG is including this brown-pants slide - this ain't greeny propaganda, this is VAG saying this, i.e, this is best-case-for-ICE stuff:



And the technology is getting better and cheaper exponentially - battery technology will drastically improve over the next 10 years:



And everyone is already planning on how to profit from battery materials recycling across battery "lifetimes" and ultimately back to the beginning:



In other words, BEVs have almost zero consumable parts (just tires & batteries), and the batteries have completely separate businesses and revenue attached to them. (and this is all ignoring V2G utility revenue)


(2.) Tesla is teeny-tiny auto manufacturer! Mmm No.

I've already posted a visual of Tesla deliveries vs other brands and it's pretty obvious Tesla is already out-delivering many legacy auto brands, but here are the VAG delivery numbers through Sept:



Tesla, at ~320k total yearly deliveries in ~Sept, is:

• ~1.5x larger than Porsche (anybody want to argue Porsche doesn't have market power?),
• Equal to SEAT,
• Half the size of Skoda,
• And within horizon-sight of Audi

And that's comparing to ALL legacy deliveries, not just BEVs. So, yes, Tesla is relatively small, but "relatively" is the operative word.

If sales trends continue, Tesla is on target to get within eyeshot of Audi deliveries in 2021.



(3.) The bigs are soooo far ahead of TSLA! Mmm No.

Key point: The Bigs are scrambling to build new BEV platforms ... and they need new factories to produce those BEVs!

But first, the Bigs have to scramble to woo a limited set of BEV parts companies into strategic partnerships/JVs - again, this is from Sept! Tesla has has already been doing this for a decade and is moving to in-house w/vertical integration; that's a MASSIVE head-start, possibly unassailable, and similar to Amazon's logistics advantage.



Next the Bigs have to build the factories - notice how closely VAG's plan resembles what Tesla is already doing (and done)!



And it's not lost on VAG that their top competitor is Tesla! They're designing their vehicles to directly compete with Tesla's products:







Product Nerd Bonus: Customer Segmentation

So who is VAG targeting and who do they think their new BEV customers are?

High education, high income urban males coming from ... Tesla!

One might wonder ... what happens if VAG can't woo over these "conquest" low-resistance buyers?
Well, then VAG is probably left with trying to sell YOU a BEV



DISCLOSURE I have no position in TSLA and never have; I don't own a Tesla and never have; I'm not considering a Tesla in the near future, rather a Porsche Macan. So basically I don't give a shit about Tesla other than it's a fun company to analyze from an industry and investor lens, especially since so many people get it wrong and have gotten it wrong.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 11-14-2020 at 08:49 PM..
Appreciate 0
      11-21-2020, 04:00 AM   #183
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
So European automakers have rallied 100% from March lows ... how do global markets value them against Tesla?

Market caps

TSLA $473B

Volkswagen $80B
Daimler $60B
BMW $47B
Ferrari $35B
Fiat $20B
Porsche SE $17B
PSA $17B
Renault $9B

Global:
Toyota $197B
GM $61B
Ford $35B
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      11-22-2020, 04:38 AM   #184
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Top 10 largest S&P 500 Companies:



But that P/E ratio:
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      11-25-2020, 09:01 PM   #185
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Back in early September I bet this dude (DanCS) on Seeking Alpha that TSLA would be up big by December.

He was so confident I was wrong (citing all kinds of car sales figures, VAG group plans etc) that he took out short positions on TSLA - that was back when TSLA was $407.

Today TSLA is $574 Can you imagine the financial beating? It's why options are so dangerous: unlimited loss potential vs equity where losses stop at zero.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 1
Bongoxxx194.00

      11-26-2020, 02:51 PM   #186
KRS_SN
Major
1151
Rep
1,016
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

as with the Innovator's curve I think tesla has the Innovator'/ Early adopter market share and is valued as if it will have all the late adopter profit value as if it won't have any competitor
The early and late majority stages are where the big boys comes in as currently perhaps based on their research most sales of Tesla are to the innovator /Early adopter group to which mass manufacturers don't plan to supply anyway as profit is less.
Attached Images
 
Appreciate 0
      Today, 03:37 AM   #187
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
11205
Rep
8,912
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
The early and late majority stages are where the big boys comes in
Dude, this has never happened in the history of business. The Big Boys aren't ever coming in - they're out; they started out, they're still out, they'll stay out.

Early movers ALWAYS win, the only question is which "big boys" survive the carnage, if any. "Big boys" are simply not organized to pivot to new stuff; they're built to be ultra-efficient at old stuff. Nobody internally has any incentive to change, so the Big Boys usually go the way of Blockbuster, extinct.

Apple: Nokia, Ericksson, Blackberry, et al
Netflix: Blockbuster, every video/DVD rental business, challenging Disney, hollywood
Google: Every major ad syndicator globally, every search engine, every phone OS / app stores
Amazon: everyone, TGT barely survived, Walmart had to acquire their way out (e.g., Jet)
Microsoft: Apple, IBM, DEC, etc etc

Tesla has the capital, technology lead, talent, and brand to destroy not only all the auto makers, but a decent chunk of suppliers AND energy companies.

Tesla's stock is not a fluke - traders realize TSLA is on the verge of owning MULTIPLE industries. There's no other game in town, and Tesla has done it all in the open while the Big Boys slept, denied reality, and bicker.

This stuff is just from today:


The only question left is which Big Boys survive.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      Today, 12:50 PM   #188
KRS_SN
Major
1151
Rep
1,016
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55103706

a very good article
valuation of Tesla went from 80billion ar the beginning of the year to 500 billion now.
An ultra ginormous ponzi scheme where you don't want to be the Last person holding the parcel when the band stops playing.
and bbc is very pro tesla...
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:44 PM.




xbimmers
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST