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At about six months out, BMW will start reminding you that your lease is almost up.
I wouldn't even bother responding to those reminders.
At about three months ago, BMW starts to up the intensity of the reminders. I'd keep ignoring them.
From three months to one month out, you should start getting offers from BMW, saying that they'll sell you the car for X. I imagine that some of the offers pertain to the kind of car you have (they might not have a lot of interest in your particular model).
I had a 2007 E90 328 that I was turning in. Residual on the car was $26K. BMW eventually offered to sell it to me for about $19K.
I already had a 2009 E92 335 on order. If I didn't, I probably would have given that offer some serious thought.
You should not be in a hurry to negotiate. You can negotiate toward the very end of the lease. I'd start showing some interest with about 1-2 months remaining.
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