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      01-17-2020, 04:26 PM   #15
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Drives: Austin Yellow M4
Join Date: May 2012
Location: NYC & some PA

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Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
Originally Posted by bimmerfrk View Post
Originally Posted by qba335i View Post
S&P on average appreciates by 19% if the previous year return was 29%+.
Thats baked in to this month's run up already. Time to take some cheddar of the table. Institutional investors are going to want to protect profits. It's easy padding for the remaining duration of this year hard not to lock some of this money in.

Also that's basically saying the trend is your friend till it isn't one fine morning.
The YTD on S&P is only 3.06% so technically still has some upside.

I work in the field and don't see a lot of selling... A lot of those big institutional investors/clients (might) have some hedges - but it's hard to know what they are doing without having access to the whole book.

Bottom line is - most people can't time the market and you can always make money - just have to be on the right side of the trade.
I'm not negating any of the statements posted. I'm doing what I feel is correct. This has been a large and long economic cycle, and its detached from actual pps/ earnings objectivity.

I work in alternative asset managment space; CLOs. So we really focus on credit. When the market tanks we make our best money as everyone rushes to an alternative investment mix. Given that I have had a feeling of calm in growth this past year. This month I'm following my gut instinct.

My gut states; yes we have made money and yes we lost money but given my positive situation and knowing we do not live in Iran I don't think inflation is a huge concern (at least short term 1- 3 months)

Given that I was not clear with time horizons. I'm waiting on a clear pullback in the next 2-3 weeks after which I will reevaluate my position in the market. You guys are crazy thinking this market will continue to rally. All the possible
relative technical analysis points to the entire market being overbought.

Whatever I digress, I'm just a simpleton avoiding the inevitable.